Rod and Melody’s Market Predictions for 2025

Every January we sit down, compare notes, and put our cards on the table. No crystal balls here. Just more than 30 years of watching cycles repeat themselves, sometimes quietly and sometimes loudly. We’ll revisit these in January 2026 and see how close we came.

1. Home Prices: Will they appreciate more than 2.7%?

Forecast models currently average 2.7% national appreciation for 2025. We’re both taking the under.

Rod’s take
Affordability is the ceiling on 2025. At today’s 7% rates, the monthly payment on a $500,000 mortgage is about $3,326 before taxes, insurance, or mortgage insurance. Incomes haven’t kept up with home prices, and we’ve essentially priced out about 65% of the buyer pool. The only thing holding prices steady through 2024 was investor demand. If investors slow down, prices soften.

Melody’s take
CoreLogic reported that home prices stalled by October 2024 (annual growth only 3.4% and monthly growth essentially flat). calculatedriskblog.com+2Cotality+2
Some pockets of the country will appreciate, but the national average is likely to come in lower than forecast. Many Utah cities are flagged with a 70%+ probability of a decline in 2025. Cotality
Owning a home still beats owning a depreciating asset, but buyers should position themselves wisely for a probable shift in pricing this year.

2. Mortgage Rates: Will the average be higher or lower than 6.34%?

The average prediction among major research groups is 6.34%. We’re both taking the over.

Rod’s take
Inflation remains sticky. Bond prices are hovering near 5%. Tariff conversations aren’t helping. Put it all together and I don’t see rates averaging below 6.34% this year.

Melody’s take
Since Freddie Mac began tracking rates in 1971, the long-term average 30-year fixed rate is about 6.93%. Bankrate+1
The 2.65% low of 2021 was an anomaly. Rocket Mortgage Without a similar intervention, rates will likely sit somewhere between 6.5% and 7.5% in 2025.
Also, current weekly 30-year fixed rate data is available via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED

3. Number of Licensed Agents in Utah: More or fewer than 19,763?

That’s the count as of January 2025. We both expect a drop.

Rod’s take
The market is softening and income is tightening. When real estate becomes difficult, we see an exodus. More agents will step out than step in.

Melody’s take
Mortgage-license numbers already show a pattern: only about 49% had renewed by November 1, 2024. (State data) Real estate tends to follow the same path. I expect the number to decline, possibly by around 25%, especially since many agents simply keep their license active without selling homes.

4. Best Real Estate Stock to Own in 2025

This one’s just for fun, but we’re calling our shots anyway.

Rod’s pick: Real Brokerage, Inc. (NASDAQ: REAX)
Up 198% last year. Strong leadership. Strong model. Reasonably priced at around $4.58 at the time of writing.

Melody’s pick: Realty Income Corporation (NYSE: O)
A commercial REIT with more than 15,000 properties across the U.S., U.K., and Europe. Diversified locations, long-term leases, and solid dividends. Even with wildfire exposure in California, the long-term stability looks solid.

Final Thoughts

We’ll circle back in January 2026 to see where we hit, missed, or called it early. Market cycles are predictable over long horizons, but messy in real time. The best move is still the same: get informed, stay flexible, and act based on your personal timeline, not the headlines.

Follow along this year as we track how the market actually performs.

Rod & Melody Moser